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By Andrea Shalal
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WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) -
A price cap on Russian seaborne oil deliveries being developed by the United States and G7 countries could significantly
reduce Russia's revenues while encouraging Moscow to continue to produce oil, 16 economists from top U.S.
and British universities told U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
The cap, agreed in principle last month by the Group of Seven rich
countries, should lower Russia's revenues by
strengthening the negotiating position of any buyers, economists including Simon Johnson at the Sloan School of Management
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard
University's Jason Furman and the University of Chicago's Ryan Kellogg said
in a letter to Yellen, which was reviewed by Reuters.
"While we do not expect all trades will be performed under the price cap, its existence should materially increase the bargaining power of private and public sector entities that buy Russian oil," they
wrote in the letter, dated Oct.
11.
The European Union last week approved its eighth batch of sanctions against
Russia for its invasion of Ukraine including the price cap, but said more
work was required for its implementation.
Concerns about the uncertainty created by the price cap are one reason Saudi officials backed OPEC+ output cuts
last week.
U.S.
officials on Tuesday said work was continuing on the measure.
A senior U.S. Treasury official said the OPEC+ production cut would raise energy costs for countries already struggling with high prices - and could prompt some to
look for opportunities to buy oil under the price cap once Europe stopped buying Russian oil after
Dec.
5.
"It creates a real opportunity for some of these countries that are facing the challenge to try and buy oil under the price cap in order to alleviate both the budgetary pressures ... and the headline inflation pressure," the official said.
The price cap would maintain economic incentives for Russia to keep
producing at current volumes, while reducing its revenues, the economists wrote.
Russia still supplied oil to world markets in April 2020, when the Brent
benchmark was close to $20 a barrel, because that price was above the cost of
production in many or most existing Russian oil fields, they noted.
The price of Brent now is around $96 per barrel.
Russia receives less due to the "Urals discount" reflecting the impact of Russia's invasion of
Ukraine, a gap that has shrunk in recent weeks.
"The oil price cap proposal would effectively institutionalize the Urals discount and consequently further lower the dollar value of the Russian government´s primary revenue stream," they said.
Daniel Berkowitz at the University of Pittsburgh; Severin Borenstein, Yuriy
Gorodnichenko, Carl Shapiro and Anastassia Fedyk at the University of California, Berkeley,
and Rick Van der Ploeg at the University of Oxford were also among
the signatories. (Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Heather Timmons, Marguerita Choy and Leslie Adler)
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